Demography, Migration and Urbanisation in China.

Theories

Zelinsky's Mobility Transition (1971)

Intensity of different types of migration is related to stages of socio-economic development from the pre-industrial traditional society to a future super-advanced society. In his hypothesis 'circulation' covers a variety of movement (eg seasonal, journeys to work, holidays) not included under the generals term of migration.

Phase I: very little residential migration and very limited circulation occasioned by social visits, the local economy, war and religion.

Phase II: considerable rural to urban migration alongside mass migration to new lands.

Phase III: rural to urban migration as well as emigration are reduced but still remain important.

Phase IV: new forms of movement (movement between cities and within cities) become important.

Net immigration of semi or unskilled workers migrants from undeveloped areas. Accelerated circulation particularly economic and pleasure seeking.

Phase V Future super advanced society (corresponds to stage V in demographic transition model)

Similar to phase IV yet level of movement may be reduced. New forms created such as urban to rural.

Ravenstein's Laws of Migration (1876, 1885, 1889) based his theories on data for Britain. Founder of migration theories. Echoes C18th political economists led by Adam Smith. His laws state:

a) Most migrants move only a short distance. As distance from a particular place increases the number of migrants decreases.

b) Migration occurs in a series of waves.

c) Each significant stream (flow) produces a counterstream.

d) The longer the distance travelled the greater the likelihood of the destination being a major industrial and commercial centre.

e) Migrants are generally adults.

f) Females are more migratory over shorter distances while males are more likely to move long distances, particularly to other countries.

g) The volume increases with development of industry and commerce.

h) Major causes of migration are economic.

1. The direction is mainly from agricultural to industrial.

Lee's Principles of Migration

Origin-intervening obstacles-destination model which emphasises push-pull factors. Used to formulate hypotheses about the volume, the development of stream and counterstream and the characteristics of migrants eg migration tends to take place in well defined streams.

To what extent do the migration patterns in China support the migration theories above?

Migration in China

2001 Pop: 1.276 billion. Rural pop was 62.34% of total and rural labour force was 67.22% of total of which 67% (329 million) worked in agriculture. Since 1978 reforms of the economy creating a 'socialist market economy' have lead to an improvement in general standard of living and a reduction in the number of people living below the poverty line (280 million (only 100 RMB) in 1980 to 32 million (625 RMB) in 2000.

Creation of Special Economic Zones in East (received 88% of FDI from 1990-96) as well as preferential development of cities (urban population grew from 20.60% of pop in 1980 to 40% in 2002) has increased the income inequality between the east and the rest of the country and rural and urban areas. Only since 1990 has a 'go-west policy' been initiated.

Number of rural-urban migrants have grown from 2 million in mid-1980s to 94 million in 2002.

There were 88 million rural migrants in 2001 55% came from central region and 34% from west. Of these 88million nearly 90% went to rural areas, with 82% moving east. Most of those moving east went to townships and county towns only 30% went to provisional cities or large metropolitan areas.

Average level of education of migrants is higher than those who stay (junior high school).

One third of rural migrants are women however Taiwanese; Hong Kong or overseas Chinese processing plants located in the south prefer females to males. Average age of female migrants (17-25) is lower than that of male(16-30).

Up until 2001 migrants often did not have official status at their destination due to Hukou policy. This has now been reformed but there still remain problems. In 2003 there were an estimated 140 million floating workers (not permanently registered)

Majority of migrants are Han Chinese.

Consequences:

Relieve the pressure on the land

Return of revenue

Development of skills

Yangtzi River Delta received 37.2% of migrant workers in 2000 of these 14% in construction; 12% in services and 11% in restaurant work.

Migrant workers contributed 16% of total GDP growth in past 18 years (from 2005) due to their hard work, high saving and low consumption.

Rural workers represent :

80% of construction workers

53% of miners

68% electronic product manufacturing

58% restaurants

58% sales

52% social services

A survey published in 2005 found that most rural migrant labourers return home.

International migrants

Number has risen although in 2001 there were around 3 million (represents a 25% increase over 2000) of whom about ½ million migrated to find employment. This does not included illegal migration which could be around 400.000.

In 2004 it was estimated that there were some 33 million ethnic Chinese living outside China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Large though this figure might appear, it is small compared with the total population of China itself, representing only 2.5 percent of a figure that presently exceeds 1.3 billion.

The three southern coastal provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang have dominated the emigration, and within those provinces, a limited number of districts and even villages.

Migration of Chinese from China has, nevertheless, been significant. It is a growing phenomenon, one that is often included under the rubric "the Chinese diaspora."

Two factors account for the shift in the migration patterns of the Chinese peoples. First, there were changes in the immigration policies of the potential destination countries that finally swept away the legacy of racist policies based on regions of origin. Second, the Chinese became increasingly capable of taking advantage of opportunities overseas.

The Chinese continue to be in the forefront of new immigration to North America and Australasia. Hong Kong pioneered these new Chinese migrations but China, by the turn of the new century, had become a major source of migrants. In the case of Canada, China became the principal source of landed immigrants from 1998.

Large numbers go abroad temporarily as students or skilled workers. Students from China make up the most important group of foreign students in Canada and the second most important group in the United States in the early 21st century.

Some 17,000 skilled workers from China entered the United States in 2002-2003 under the H-1B visa program, almost half of them going into computer-related occupations. In total, 861,930 Chinese citizens entered the United States as some type of temporary entrant in 2001, still a long way behind the leading Asian source, Japan, at over five million. This category includes tourists.

By 2000, the Chinese population as a whole in the United States, at 2.7 million, had emerged as the largest Asian ethnic group and one that was increasing at a rate between four and five times faster than the growth rate of the total population of the country.

The Chinese represent a minority group among those smuggled into both the United States and Europe. The term "smuggled" is used in preference to "trafficked," as the majority of Chinese appear to enter willingly into illegal arrangements in order to facilitate their passage to the West, paying up to $50,000 or more for the privilege, depending upon the destination and means of transfer. Most, though not all, of the irregular migrants come from Fujian Province. This province, paradoxically, is one of China's richer areas.

Some evidence exists to suggest that the locus of the smuggling of the Chinese is shifting from North America towards Europe, and also Japan, which may reflect the success of increased surveillance around the United States, particularly after September 11.